The basic principle, then, is that Oppositions don’t win elections, governments lose them. Indeed, no government has held office for a full four terms in the UK (twenty years) and only one government in Australia has held office for more than four full terms (12 years) in Australia (Hawke-Keating). So, to return to the original question, why do governments lose elections? The rough data presented here suggests that length of time in office is strongly correlated with the outcome of elections in both countries, and at some point, governments appear to lose election because they have simply been in office too long. But what might be the causal factors here? I identify Four Problems here which together contribute to the sense that it is, indeed, time to get rid of the government.
- Accumulated economic crises.
If you’re in power long enough the economy will at some point go downhill. If you’re new to power, you can probably blame this on the previous government (see Cameron 2010-2015), but the longer a government has been in power, the more likely they will be found at fault by the electorate for economic problems. Governments will happily take the credit for economic good times, so it’s hard to avoid taking the blame when the bad times come (see Gordon Brown 2007-2010). The electorate will take it out on the government sooner (leading to the Fraser 1975 election win) or later (the 1991/1992 economic crisis leading to Howard’s 1996 election win, with Labour having won re-election in 1993).
- Accumulated scandals.
Prime Ministers are occasionally required to cry on television (Bob Hawke in 1984 and 1989 over family drug problems and an extra-marital affair respectively) or even resign (Boris Johnson in 2023) over public scandals. Nevertheless, they have mostly been able to avoid such extremes. However, Minsters number by the dozens, and backbenchers by the hundreds, and the longer a government is in office the more opportunities there are for scandals to emerge, whether these pertain to sex, drugs (or both, perhaps with underage sex workers) and rock’n’roll, financial scandals (cash-for-Peerages, under-the-table housing loans), policy scandals (Robodebt), or the growing field of personal scandals (car driver swap speeding ticket shenanigans, sexual harassment incidents or social media problem-posts). Even if the individual finds such scandals ‘survivable’ in terms of their political career (think Peter Mandelson), they can add up to create a ‘whiff’ of corruption around the government, contributing to an outraged electorate determined to see them off.
- Declining quality of the Ministry.
Government usually come into office fresh-faced and full of energy, optimism, ideas, and Ministerial talent. The Labour victory in 1997 or Conservatives in 2010 might be taken as good examples of this. However, there is a strong attrition effect, as Ministers make errors of judgement, fall foul to Problem 1 or Problem 2, or are the victims of political infighting (Boris Johnson’s purges prior to the 2019 election) or manoeuvring (sometimes their own). A government that has been in power for three terms or more sees a serious decline in competency, talent runs thin, senior figures resign, Prime Ministers in trouble choose senior Ministers for loyalty over competence (an accusation fired at Gordon Brown and Paul Keating). It is unusual for the dearth of Ministerial talent to extend as far up as the Prime Minister, but questions can be asked about Liz Truss’s 49 days in 2022.
- Socio-demographic changes.
Governments in the Westminster system win elections by putting together a ‘minimum winning coalition’ across the electorate, which provides them with enough votes in enough seats/constituencies to be able to form a majority in the Lower House (the House of Commons in the UK and the House of Representatives in Australia). This mix of different types of voters sufficient to win an election can be sustained, but not forever. Social and demographic changes over the term of a government will not fundamentally change the character of every electorate, but it will change the character of some, potentially turning safe seats into marginals. Governments may struggle to change the nature of its coalition in response to this, and while it might occasionally happen – the Hawke Labour government in Australia in the 1990 re-election campaign – these changed coalitions may not be as stable as the original winning coalition. And most governments are simply not agile enough to manage this, as the Liberal party loss of Prime Minister Howard’s own seat in 2007, as well as the losses of inner-city ‘blue ribbon’ seats in the 2016 and 2019 elections testify.
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