So how might this logic apply to the 2024 UK election?
- Accumulated economic crises:
The Cameron government was elected in 2010 (albeit in coalition with the Liberal Democrats) on the back of the 2008/09 global economic crisis, for which the Brown Labour government (2007-2010) took the fall. Nevertheless, the policy choice of Austerity under the Chancellorship of George Osborne 2010-2016 meant that the UK did not really experience an economic recovery, and economic policies purportedly aimed at reducing government debt and lowering taxes have led to higher debt and higher taxes in practice. The UK economy was already a problem, which both contributed to and was compounded by BREXIT. Leaving a free trade area (in this case the EEA) by definition involves serious economic costs, a reality that was never acknowledged by the Leave campaign, which instead mooted potential economic benefits for the NHS that have never eventuated. Even if there are in theory political benefits to BREXIT, such as ‘taking back control of our borders’, these are also yet to eventuate.
These economic problems are self-inflicted, but the Johnson Conservative government (2019-2002) did not cause, and is not to blame, for the global COVID-19 pandemic, any more than Gordon Brown caused the 2008 sub-prime securitisation collapse. However, this pandemic brought dire economic consequences, and governments can be blamed even if they are not responsible. Furthermore, policy indecision, delays on actions and mishandling of the lockdowns (perceived or otherwise, and despite the relative success of economic policies such as the furlough scheme), the electorate may well have seen Problem 1 as applying in the case of the 2024 UK election even without the intervention of Liz Truss. Nevertheless, her 49 days in office did massive economic damage and caused an interest rate spike that swing mortgage-belt voters are unlikely to forgive the government for, or indeed forgive the Conservative party for, any time soon. Kwasi Kwarteng, Chancellor of the Exchequer under the Truss government for 38 days, has a PhD in economic history, specialising in currency crashes; his only achievement in post was to cause one.
- Accumulated scandals:
Boris Johnson as Prime Minister was a rolling set of personal scandals: sex, maybe not drugs, but certainly rock’n’roll at lockdown rule-breaching parties. The 2010- Conservative government has faced policy scandals (such as Windrush and the Post Office Horizon scandal), sex scandals (though Matt Hancock and aide Gina Coladangelo was hardly the Profumo Affair), appointment scandals (particularly Boris Johnson and Liz Truss’s resignation honours lists), and scandals pertaining to BREXIT (ferry deals with firms that had no ferries) and COVID-19 (misspent PPE money). Currently, there are scandals concerning Conservative party candidates betting on the election date, as well as candidate expulsions based on various social media posts and other statements. Certainly, Problem 2 was a key factor in the demise of Boris Johnson, and may prove to be so again for Rishi Sunak and the Conservative government.
- Declining quality of the Ministry:
Under Boris Johnson there were suggestions that senior Ministerial appointments were being made not on the basis of competence, but on who were his friends and allies, and who would constitute little or no threat to his position. This is a common problem in governments who are soon to lose office. This problem of decline was accelerated under Liz Truss, with Ministerial appointees such as Jacob Rees-Mogg not surviving Truss’s own downfall, and Kwasi Kwarteng even less than Truss’s own 49 days. As for Rishi Sunak, he has been forced to appoint Ministers who are clearly jockeying for both his downfall and his job, but none of them are willing to mount a leadership challenge until after the 2024 election, as given the scale of Problems 1, 2 and 3, the post of leader of the Conservative Party and Prime Minster of the United Kingdom has never looked like such a poisoned chalice.
- Socio-demographic changes:
The loss of ‘blue ribbon’ inner-city seats like Kensington in 2017 suggests demographic change does affect the Conservatives, but following BREXIT Boris Johnson was able to transform the Conservatives ‘minimum winning coalition’ in 2019 with big wins in traditionally Labour-voting ‘Red Wall’ seats. So far, so good for the Conservatives. However, Boris Johnson is gone, and there is a significant likelihood of losing these ‘Red Wall’ seats back to Labour in 2024.
Indeed, while polling is problematic in the UK, and historically can carry a significant margin-of-error (sometimes overestimating Labour/underestimating the Conservative vote by as much as 5%), the current polling suggests a solid Labour majority even with a record polling error. We can see how the Conservatives face multiple seat losses in the 2024 election in the face of accumulated Problems 1, 2, 3 and 4.
- Losing marginal mortgage belt seats to Labour in an economic backlash particularly against Truss’s impact on interest rates (Problem 1) (i.e. Nuneaton).
- Losing formerly safe ‘blue ribbon’ urban seats to Labour due to demographic changes (Problem 4) (i.e. Kensington).
- Losing the recently gained ‘Red Wall’ seats back to Labour (Problem 1) – a problem exacerbated by Nigel Farage’s Reform party splitting the anti-Labour vote (i.e. Hartlepool).
- Losing both rural seats (i.e. Horsham) and leafy London seats (i.e. Wimbledon) to the Lib Dems, whose vote will be heavily concentrated (Problems 1, 2 and 3).
- The SNP, having governed Holyrood since 2007 (eighteen years) and held the vast majority of Scottish seats in the House of Representatives since 2015 election (ten years), are likely to lose a raft of seats to Labour in the 2024 election (SNP facing their own Problems 2 and 3), making it much easier for Labour to form a government.
So while current option polls (in some cases predicting a Labour majority of 200 or more) may overstate the Labour lead, and can usually be expected to narrow in the final two weeks of an election, Problems 1-4 above are likely to translate into Conservative party seats losses across categories I-IV, which combined with category V Labour gains, can explain all the rats leaving this sinking ship: 79 MPs elected as Conservatives in 2019 are not running for re-election in 2024. The last time this happened in such numbers was in the 2010 election, when 100 Labour MPs resigned.
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